## Sunday, June 15, 2014

### Election Fraud Suspected in 2012 South Korean Presidential Election

Let us first watch the video below that features the Dec 13, 2004 interview of Clinton Eugene Curtis, Computer Programmer: “It would flip the vote 51 – 49 to whoever you wanted it to go to and whichever race you wanted to win.” (0:27)  We'll talk about possible election rigging made by programs that might have been secretly used to fix the 2012 South Korean presidential election near the end of this post. (Click to learn more about Clinton Curtis and programs that can be used to secretly fix elections.)

On January 2, 2013, Clint Curtis the Million Dollar Programmer himself left the following message on this blog:

Electronic election fraud is very hard to detect and even harder because the declared winner does not want further investigation and the declared loser tend to not publicly champion the fight. If the election was flipped it is possible to determine this without cooperation of those in charge of the election.
Fraud done by a computer will be done programmatically. While the fraud may be creative, it will still be done through altering numbers that would otherwise go to the other candidate.
All one needs to do is to look at the precinct level data and find precincts where the numbers do not look right. If the people are behind making sure their elections are conducted fairly, they will likely be willing to sign affidavits as to which candidate they selected. With this information, you can compare the affidavits totals to the official totals. If the numbers do not match you have excellent evidence that fraud has indeed occurred. This needs to be done in several precincts to verify the hypothesis. If the fraud was performed artfully, not every precinct will show the same percentage. If it mirrors that program I wrote for the Republicans in 2000, none of the percentages will be identical.
Once you have hard evidence that the count was incorrect, you might be able to find someone to champion the cause and force a recount or new elections using only paper ballot that are publicly counted by hand.

And since last July, Kim Moo-sung, who served as chief campaign manager for Park Geun-hye, had consistently repeated that the result of the 2012 South Korean presidential election would be 51:49.  As follows is the captured image that shows the first page of the search results of "Kim Moo-sung" and "51:49" in Korean.

Do you think it was just an accident?  Then please keep reading.

And before you move on to the next section, please first read the overall eval‍uation of the analyses in this post made by Dr. Richard Charnin, a mathematician, election research quantitative analyst and model developer, who has been fighting for US election integrity and unadjusted exit polls.

"It appears that you have done a tremendous job analyzing the South Korean presidential election. Quite frankly, there is nothing I can add. Your presentation of graphs, tables and mathematical analysis of vote patterns is extremely impressive. Best of luck."

1. Why Are the Results of the Election Not Trustable?

(1) A Large Gap between the Exit Polls and Actual Vote Count Results

Over the past decade, the exit polls have a reputation for accuracy in projecting election results including the winning margin.  In the 2002 presidential election, the exit poll indicated a 1.7 percentage point lead for Roh Moo-hyun and he eventually won by a 2.3 percentage point lead.  There was just a 0.6 percentage point difference between the exit poll and the actual results.  And in the 2010 Seoul City mayoral election, there was just a 0.4 percentage point difference between the exit poll and the actual result.  In 2002, the three major S. Korean TV networks (KBS, MBC, and SBS) took the exit poll “separately” and “independently.” During Lee Myung-bak’s administration (2008~present), most of the South Korean media have diminished to be the government’s handmaidens and this year, strangely enough, KBS, MBC, and SBS decided to conduct the “joint” exit poll, all of a sudden.

In the 2012 presidential election, the joint exit poll showed very low accuracy. The “joint” exit poll by KBS, MBC, and SBS indicated a 1.7 percentage point lead for Park Geun-hye but she eventually won by a 3.6 percentage point lead.  A 2.4 percentage point difference between the exit poll and the actual result is huge.  On the other hand, in the exit poll by OhMyNews, Moon Jae-in was projected to win the election by a 2.4 percentage point lead, beyond the margin of error.  All these exit polls had been taken up until 3:00 pm. When we consider the fact that in South Korea, voters in their 50’s and over who tend to lead toward the conservative party tend to do more early voting than the younger generations who tend to lean toward the democratic party, Moon could have won by a huge margin.  And in fact, in the poll by YTN, Moon was projected to win the election by a 3.6 percentage point lead.

More than anything, voter turnouts were soaring throughout the Election Day, almost as high as in the 1997 presidential election in which Kim Daejung, the Democratic nominee, won the election and even higher than in the 2002 presidential election in which Roh Moo-hyun, also the Democratic nominee, won the election.

Around 1:00 pm, Park Geun-hye’s Saenuri Party announced they would file a lawsuit to declare invalid election even if Moon won the election, making a false accusation of unlawful acts.  According to some reports made around that time, Park’s camp and Saenuri Party were texting one another, stating the emergency while Moon’s camp, the Democratic Party, and the supporters were in a festive mood.  According to the resources for reporters, the joint exit poll taken by KBS, MBC, and SBS up until 3:00 pm indicated a 2.2 percentage point lead for Moon (Moon: 50.8%, Park: 48.6%).  And all of other independent exit polls were also known to have projected Moon Jae-in to win the election:

• Samsung: Moon (50.8%), Park (48.6%)
• Korea Research: Moon (47%), Park (42%)
• Reseach View & Stock Firms: Moon (50.4%), Park (48.1%)
• Research Plus: Moon (50.4%), Park (48.1%)
• KBS (Independent) and the Blue House indicated about a 3 percentage point lead for Moon.

 Exit poll results conducted by various polling agencies were texted to Park Jie-won, the floor leader for Democratic Partyright before the release of the "joint" exit polls by KBS, MBC, and SBS.All of them projected Moon Jae-in to win the election.The text message above reads:Samsung: Moon (50.8%), Park (48.6%)Korea Research: Moon (47%), Park (42%)Reseach View & Stock Firms: Moon (50.4%), Park (48.1%)Research Plus: Moon (50.4%), Park (48.1%)KBS (Independent), YTN, Blue House indicated a 3 percentage point lead for Moon.

But in less than two hours, at 5:00 pm, KBS, MBC, and SBS unanimously projected Park to win the election (Moon: 48.9%, Park: 50.1%). Unlike past elections, they didn’t even announce and update the hourly exit polls before 5:00 pm. On the other hand, Moon was projected to win by the YTN poll by a 3.6 percentage point lead (Moon:  49.7 ~ 53.5%, Park: 46.1 ~ 49.9%).

And there’s no more exit polls after 5:00 pm and 2,310,660 people voted after 5 pm.  Suppose the joint exit poll was accurate, then in order for Moon to win, he should have earned 57.5% of 2,310,660 votes.  But not only did he fail to do so but he lost by a bigger margin than projected.  Traditionally, college students and blue/white collar workers tend to start voting around 5:00 pm after their work is over.  And they tend to lean toward the progressive party.  Here’s one out of many examples:  In the 2010 Seoul City mayoral election, Oh Se-hoon of the conservative Grand National Party (former Saenuri Party) was leading by 14 percentage point margin in the morning, by 4 percentage point margin at 4:00 pm, and by 0.6 percentage point margin around closing time as more people voted for Han Myung-sook of the Democratic Party after 4:00 pm.

Did Moon fail to earn 57.5% of 2,310,660 votes cast after 5:00 pm because the voters in their 50’s and over chose to turn out after 5:00 pm this time? And reportedly, voters in their 50’s marked 90% turnout and the media is unanimously making a fuss about it every day. Does it mean the conservative fifty something voters chose to turn out altogether after 5:00 pm, only in this election?  Then, let's take a look at the following graphs that indicate the accumulated votes counted by hour in this election. (The original graph is provided by SBS).

When the voters in their 50’s and over were rushing to turn out after 5:00 pm, when Park was earning enormously larger number of votes than Moon, how could the graphs make such beautiful, consistently smooth curves, indicating a "consistent" 3.6 percentage point lead for Park? This is very crucial evidence that the election was rigged. We'll discuss this more in detail in section 2 below.

(2) The 2012 South Korean Presidential Election Marked High Voter Turnout: 75.8%

Past elections have shown that the higher the voter turnout, the more likely the progressive party to win.  The media and Saenuri Party are now touting the growth in the 50 and over population. It’s true the 50 and over population has increased 10%. Voters in their 50’s reportedly marked 89.9% turnout but they are a limited range of the voters. Thus, we don’t think it’s plausible they were the main reason of the higher-than-usual voter turnout.

(3) Turnout among Voters in Their 50’s was Abnormally High and Turnout among Voters in Their 40’s was Abnormally Low

Voter turnouts of the 1997, 2002, and 2007 presidential elections show a uniform pattern.  When we calculate the voter turnout by age based on this pattern, 82% of voters in their 40’s and 80% of voters in their 50’s must have turned out to vote with 75.8% voter turnout. But in fact, in the 2012 presidential election with 75.8% voter turnout, only 78.7% of voters in their 40’s are known to have voted while a tremendously high number of voters in their 50’s (89.9%) have turned out to vote. Let me put it this way. If 51 year-old voters mark 82% turnout, then voters at a certain age group must mark 98% turnout to make 89.9% average turnout possible.  So, 89.9% turnout among voters in their 50’s, do you think it’s really possible?

Especially, while the average turnout gap in past elections between voters in their 40’s and those in their 50’s is 7%, the gap in turnout in the 2012 presidential election is 11.2%.  When we consider the high turnout in this election, the gap would be approximately 13%.  Please beware that the turnout among voters in their 50’s has nothing to do with the growth in the 50’s population. Yet, the leading conservative news media is trying to relate these two variables to justify the nonsensical election results. But the fact of the matter is, the voter turnout by age is not available at this time and they are telling lies with no tangible real numbers.

(UPDATE) There's been a movement among South Korean voters that the names of the registered voters must be double-checked to see if the turnout among the voters in their 50's was not modified. (Related Link: http://www.seoprise.com/board/view.php?table=seoprise_13&uid=185253)

(4) Moon Jae-in Earned 40% of the Vote Cast in Busan

As Busan is a traditional conservative Saenuri Party voting constituency, Moon’s Democratic camp had hoped to get 35% of the vote at the most.  But in fact, he got 40% of the vote surpassing their own expectations. This is the best result the Democratic Party has ever had in Busan in the history of South Korean elections. FYI, Roh Moo-hyun won the 2002 presidential election, with only 29.9% of the vote earned in Busan.  But Moon lost the 2012 presidential election, even with 39.9% of the vote earned in Busan.

(5) Absentee Voter Turnout was Very High

900,000 absentee voters and 150,000 South Koreans overseas cast their votes – 1,050,000 votes in all.  A majority of absentee voters are younger generations who tend to lean toward the progressive party and absentee voter participation in the 2012 presidential election was tremendously high.  Moon also got 56.7% of the vote cast by 150,000 South Koreans overseas while Park got 42.8%.

(6) Only Electronic Counters were Used for Vote Count

Possible election rigging made by the electronic counters in South Korean elections including the 2012 presidential election will be discussed below.  In short, this election was Moon Jae-in’s to lose but he really lost by a big margin.

2. Inevitable Connection between Electronic Counting and Man in Power

Even before the 2012 presidential election, there have been some concerns expressed regarding the use of the electronic counters as a means of vote count. Experts like Han Young-soo, a former union head of the National Election Committee say they can pre-program the electronic counters and the National Election Committee s computer to fabricate the election results.  The reality is one thing, the virtual reality is another. In other words, the National Election Committee and the TV networks can always release and broadcast the fabricated counting process and results live.

Imagine that you are President Lee Myung-bak with great power and money but with no sense of shame or decency. During your own administration, you have been imbued with corruption. If the Democratic office holds power, then it’s highly likely that you will be subject to criminal prosecution and sent to prison. But you know too well that the electronic counters have serious flaws; that these machines can be easily used to rig the votes so magically.  For it was you who asked for the recount in the previous presidential election. Then would you not feel tempted to cheat using these machines? If not, then you would feel uneasy and nervous on Election Day, wouldn’t you? But when South Koreans saw him vote with the First Lady on Election Day, they felt uneasy and nervous instead because the First Couple looked so worry-free and even delighted as if they didn’t care about the election results or already knew the results.

Now click to watch the videos below that show the serious flaws of the electronic counters and errors and fraud made in the South Korean elections.

Electronic Counters: Errors and Fraud in S. Korean Elections

Electronic Counters: Errors and Fraud Simulation

Now, you will see a very surprising analysis provided by SBS, which shows Park got 100 percentage point vote and Moon got 93 percentage point vote consistently every 30 minutes after 22:30 am.  Do you think it's ever possible to happen?

The following chart shows, in fact, Park earned 100 votes and Moon earned 93 votes every second from 22:77 (10:77 pm) through 05:30 am.  Do you think this can really happen with no rigging?

And now let's take a look at the graphs below that indicate the accumulated votes counted by hour in this election.

Now, let's compare the above graphs with those which indicate the neck and neck Minnesota senate race between Al Franken and Norm Coleman in 2009.  Don't you think the graphs below look more natural even though they don't look as beautiful as those above?

And you know what's more interesting?  In the controversial 2008 US senate race between Ted Stevens (Republican) and Mark Begich (Democratic), electronic voting tallies until 8:00 pm were surprisingly non-random just like they were in the 2012 S. Korean presidential election.

But a vote spread became significantly more random during the hand-counting of the absentee and provisional ballots.

The data depicted in the figure above shows that the measurement of vote spread randomness increased 3 fold for the hand counting process versus the electronic ballot counting process on November 5th.

To sump up, at the end of November 5th Ted Stevens had a 3257-vote lead over Mark Begich and political pundits were declaring the race essentially won by Ted Stevens.  That was until it was revealed that over 90,000 absentee and provisional ballots remained to be counted in Alaska, almost 1/3 of all the total ballots that would be cast in this race. And Begich eventually beat Stevens the next day. (Click to learn more about this election.)

Now, let's learn more about the curve that each graph in the 2012 S. Korean presidential election shows.  It's called the logistic curve.

(Wikipedia) A logistic function or logistic curve is a common sigmoid function, which may be simply defined by the formula

$P(t) = \frac{1}{1 + e^{-t}}$

where the variable P might be considered to denote a population, where e is Euler's number and the variable t might be thought of as time. For values of t in the range of real numbers from −∞ to +∞, the S-curve shown is obtained. In practice, due to the nature of the exponential function e−t, it is sufficient to compute t over a small range of real numbers such as [−6, +6].

The logistic function finds applications in a range of fields, including artificial neural networks, biology, biomathematics, demography, economics, chemistry, mathematical psychology, probability, sociology, political science, and statistics.

 Standard logistic sigmoid function

The fact that a graph that indicates the accumulated vote-count by hour shows such a smooth generalized logistic curve is never a common or natural thing to happen. To top it off, it's not even one graph, but both of the graphs that indicates the accumulated votes earned by both candidates. Don't you think it's really artificial?

Unlike in the US presidential election, these graphs that indicate the accumulated vote count for both candidates (by hour) reflect the votes earned "nationwide." Therefore, the percent of votes earned should continuously fluctuate or keep turning around according to which party the voters in some precinct whose votes are currently counted are leaning toward or according to the speed the votes are opened and counted. That's been the way our past elections looked like, especially the presidential elections that reflect the votes from nationwide which tend to lean strongly toward a certain candidate according to the precinct the votes are from.

But the 2012 presidential election didn't show even a little fluctuation, maintaining a consistent 3.6 percentage point lead for Park for about 7 hours, just as seen in the beautifully smooth generalized logistic curve above.  The logistic curve is given by the "formula" while the election results are not.  In other words, how could the actual election results show the logistic distribution?  Weird, right?

Of course, we can’t vouch for the case but it’s just our assumption as the votes are yet to be counted “manually” and it's not like anyone has ever blown the whistle.  That’s why we need to check everything thoroughly: We need to “manually” check the actual votes counted; we need to check the process in which the voting results counted were transmitted via computer, tallied, and reported; we need to have the names of actual voters, the number of votes actually counted at the voting station, the number of votes transmitted via computer to be tallied, and the number of votes broadcast by networks in hand; and we need to compare them with one another and check them against one another to get the accurate number of votes earned by each candidate.

By the way, I will give you very interesting yet fishy news. On June 30, 2012, DongA Dailyreported President Lee Myung-bak secretly flew to San Francisco on June 25 to meet up with Kim Moo-sung, a former floor leader of Saenuri Party, who was "backpacking" in the US at that time; and on June 29, 2012, NoCut News reported Yim Tae-hee, a former Blue House Chief of Staff, also flew to the US on June 21 to meet up with Kim Moo-sung.  Later, Kim, who had been famous for being anti-Park Geun-hye,  joined her camp to serve as chief campaign manager for Park. Accident? I don't think so.  Can you believe 61-year-old Kim Moo-sung, a four-time lawmaker and former floor leader of Saenuri Party, was really backpacking in the US?; and President Lee Myung-bak and Yim Tae-hee, a former Blue House Chief of Staff, flew to have a chat with him?  What was Kim Moo-sung doing in the US?  FYI, the Park Geun-hye camp later hired a team of election maneuver experts from US and a lot of South Koreans are now suspecting they helped her camp rig the election.  For example, Kim Moo-sung hired Ahn Byung-do, a former National Election Committee Chief of Public Affairs, and had him serve as Park's Special Adviser in this election. Please watch him explain about the electronic vote counting system while working for the National Election Committee.

On December 26, 2012, Won Joon-hee, Secretary of the National Election Committee, had an interview with CBS Radio and said they counted all the votes manually and used the electronic counters only to sort the votes. But as I mentioned above, Park Geun-hye was projected to be most likely to win the election, unanimously by South Korea's top three networks (KBS, MBC, and SBS), when merely 20 percent of votes were counted, and projected to win when just 40 percent of votes were counted. In other words, she was projected to win the election in 3 hours after the vote was closed as Ahn Byung-do, Park's Special Adviser and former.National Election Committee Chief of Public Affairs, boasted in the video above. He said the computer could read 15,000 votes per hour.  Do you think humans can do the same thing?  Really?

The following picture shows the electronic vote counting system in which the manual tally must be conducted in each precinct and the results for each precinct must be sent to the National Election Committee to be tallied again.

 South Korean electronic vote counting system

And the following picture of the National Election Committee document shows that in order to stop a hacker from hijacking their electronic vote counting system, they had hired private computer security companies such as Coconut (for the 2002 presidential election) and Igloo Security (for the 2007 presidential election).

 National Election Committee’s answer to Lee Jae-jin’s request for release of information

In short, private computer security companies handled the security of the National Election Committee’s electronic vote counting system. However, according to the KoreaIT News article, in May 2012, 7 month before the presidential election, the National Election Committee suddenly stopped hiring private computer security subcontractors and had it handled in-house. And on December 18, 2012, a day before the presidential election, not only did the electronic voting/counting system receive a final check but also the final rehearsal with the data transmission system to TV networks was done. This data transmission system enables live coverage of vote tallying.

Firstly, why did the National Election Committee abruptly stop hiring private computer security subcontractors for no apparent reason? As they handled the security system themselves, no one but a select few involved could ever know what really happened in their computer system on Election Day. Secondly, they reportedly did the final rehearsal with the data transmission system to TV networks. Then how could they not catch the errors (if not fraudulent) made by the electronic counting system that produced surprisingly non-random electronic voting tallies as shown above?  Therefore, even when the votes are manually counted as we have demanded, a thorough investigation into the central counting system of the National Election Committee must be made at the same time.

Strangely enough, just a day before the 2012 presidential election, Ahn Dae-hee, the chairman of the Committee of Political Reform of Saenuri Party, who had worked for Park's campaign, suddenly vanished (LINK); and just two days after Park Geun-hye was announced S. Korea's president-elect, Kim Moo-sung also disappeared leaving a note posted to his office door saying, "I've done my job and I need to take a break." (LINK)  Don't you think they have been moving exactly according to the previously made scenarios?   And when I watched the following HBO documentary on US election fraud, which was also aired on South Korea's EBS in 2007, I couldn't help but wonder if the Saenuri people had watched it too and copycatted the crime because that was exactly the thing that happened in the 2012 presidential election (even including the deliberate suppression of the vote).  As follows is the edited 20-minute version of the documentary. (Click the link to watch the full-length version: part 1part2 & part 3.)

3. Other Unlawful Acts Associated with Vote Count

(1) Evidences for Unlawful Acts Associated with Vote Count

Since the Election Day, South Koreans have been raising suspicions that there were unlawful acts associated with S. Korea's presidential vote count, including “8 million” ballots votes declared invalid and left unaccounted for, Moon jae-in's votes sorted and counted as Park Geun-hye's, or bunches of votes for Park found folded together, to name a few. FYI, in South Korean elections, people stamp the ballot paper and both of the votes shown below must be invalidated. But in the 2012 presidential election, invalid votes cast for Park Geun-hye were declared valid while those cast for Moon Jae-in were declared invalid:

(2) Possible Unlawful Acts in Absentee Vote and Overseas Vote

Votes are counted immediately after voting ends. But the absentee votes and overseas votes are counted respectively 5 days and 9 days after voting ends. Therefore, there’s a security risk for ballot boxes since early vote count is not allowed.  Unless the official supervisors from each party keep a close watch on the boxes 24/7, anyone can always open them and rig the vote. For instance, in the 2011 Seoul City mayoral by-election that Park Won-soon of the Democratic Party won 53.2% to 46.4%, Na Kyung-won of conservative Saenuri Party earned 54.7% of the absentee vote.

More importantly, the ballot boxes in the 2012 presidential election were made from plastic and accordingly, the security seals and safety latches can always be removed from and applied back to the plastic ballot boxes without damaging.

 The safety latches were also made from plastic.
 A ballot box with no security seal
 Extra ballot boxes with no seals hidden behind found by a voter
 The twitter message above reads: 18 suspicious ballot boxes found so far.This box came in unlocked. The election board official was caught while hurriedly trying to lock it.
 One of the ballot boxes made of metalused during Roh Moo-hyun's administration

Besides, the ballot envelopes were transparent so anyone can see who the votes were for, which means anyone can selectively pick out and switch or discard the votes.  This is a clear violation of the constitution that guarantees secret ballots.

 Picture taken at 2012 S. Korean presidential election voting center

And the absentee ballot envelopes were transparent, too.

3. Manual Count Must be Done Immediately

A. Tentative count (electronic counting) was done.
B. Formal count (manual counting) has not started yet.
C. The election results are not officially confirmed.

Under the South Korean Public Official Election Act, the electronic counters cannot be used in elections, but only in by-elections by mutual consent (with other parties).  So if the National Election Committee refuses to do the manual counting, then the election itself should be nullified as they are violating the South Korean Public Official Election Act.

Do you remember the Florida election recount of 2000 US presidential election?  And the South Korean presidential election recount of 2002? After the recount, President Roh Moo-hyun’s election was legally/officially assured. Recount is our right guaranteed by the constitution. And we’re not even asking for recount; we’re asking for the formal manual counting that is regulated by the constitution. Why are the Lee Myung-bak administration, the National Election Committee  and the political parties violating the law? This is a serious constitutional crime that impinges voting rights and election law.

More accurately speaking, the electronic counters are merely sorting machines that are used to sort votes to accelerate the counting processes.  That’s why the manual counting must follow to verify the serial numbers, invalid votes, misplaced votes, and so on. And this is regulated by the South Korean Public Official Election Act. In short, the actual counting must go on. Why did they leave the counting held in suspension?

All the votes were “sorted” now. And based on the tentative results, South Korean media projected Park Geun-hye to win the election.  Now, it’s time for the real counting.

And now, South Koreans are signing petition for the manual count on the 2012 Presidential Election (LINK) and also will file a lawsuit to seek the nullification of the election.

========================================================================
This post will be continually updated as new information comes in.

(Some South Koreans believe this post to be a CNN article but it's not true. Please note this is a personal blog.)

## Sunday, June 8, 2014

### [Commentary] The investigation into Sewol-ho ferry sailors should not be tail-cropping

The investigation into Sewol-ho ferry sailors should not be tail-cropping
Enactment of a special law for the investigation and punishment should be prepared

(16 May 2014, Seoul) Yesterday, May 15th, 2014, State Prosecutors announced an interim report on the Sewol-ho ferry disaster investigation indicting 15 sailors including prosecuting the ferry captain Lee Joon-seok and three crew members for murder by nonfeasance.  The report said that ‘willful negligence’ is applied to them because after the accident, the sailors escaped from the ship without taking any action knowing that the passengers would be at risk and it could lead to death.  However, the prosecutors’ investigation into the sailors is just the beginning of the Sewol-ho ferry investigation.  If this disaster is a case of murder by nonfeasance, legal liability of the Coast Guard and so-called ‘Control Tower’, that could not rescue even one person except 172 survivors who escaped from the sinking ship by themselves, is not light in comparison with the crewmen’s.  All the people who are accountable for the disaster must be punished according to their responsibilities.

The entire nation knows that the captain and the crew who are responsible for evacuating all passengers acted irresponsibly.  People want to know the truth of the Sewol-ho ferry disaster, not the fact that people already know.  The prosecutors only announced the report of investigation into the captain and the crew members quickly.  It makes people worry that it is a tail-cropping that the Government’s failure of rescue is shifted on to the sailors’ shoulders.  It is difficult to expect the prosecutors to conduct an impartial investigation into so-called ‘Control Tower’, such as the Coast Guard, the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries, the Ministry of Security and Public Administration, Cheong Wa Dae (the office of the President), because the prosecutors gets endlessly smaller in front of power.

The truth of the Sewol-ho ferry disaster is not to emulate individual facts.  We want the overall structure of responsibility to be revealed.  From the sinking to the rescue, what problems caused the disaster should be uncovered.  And when people in charge are punished based on this, our society can have a hope that this kind of a disaster will not happen again.

To do so, a special law for the Sewol-ho ferry disaster investigation and punishment on person in charge should be enacted, as the bereaved families and many citizens require.  We cannot entrust a probe only to prosecutors.  A system to unearth the truth must be established first.  It should allow people to participate in the investigation, and include forming a fact-finding committee that all citizens can trust and investigating by a special prosecutor.  What the prosecutors do now is to prevent destruction of evidence and stop relevant person in charge from running away.

Statement in Korean >> 선원 수사, ‘꼬리 자르기’ 아니어야
(Translated by Ms. Misung Zo, Volunteer)

### [Statement] Free all the detainees and Stop Oppressing Freedom of Assembly!

(18 May 2014, Seoul) Yesterday(17 May 2014), police authority has forcibly hauled 119 participants in who swerved from the original course near An-guk subway station in the assembly where people had held rally to cherish the victims of ferry ‘Sewol’
They were participants who were in the course and the others, away from the course of the assembly, all who tried to return to Seoul City Hall where there supposed to be held formal assembly after a march. However, the police suddenly interrupted and besieged them and then hauled them abruptly. They also violently hauled people who stayed in sidewalk and in parking lot, resulting in injuries.  Among them were even secondary students.
We not only denounce the injustice of the police authority who have hauled the peaceful protesters, but also demand the truth of the ferry ‘Sewol’ to be investigated. It is not always illegal to march on the street which is different from reported course. And no one has right to dissolute the peaceful mach even though it is not reported, and no one has right to arrest people who walked to different area after the mach.
It is an absolute violation of the freedom of assembly that is clearly enshrined in the Constitution. Only is a sheer intention to tame people under the regime’s intention that the government restricts assembly under the de-facto ‘permit system’ and finds every little pretext to make them illegal.
Free all the detainee!
And Stop Oppressing Freedom of Assembly!
(Translated by Jae-hee Jang (장재희님), Volunteer)

### [Statement] Position of Civil Society on President Park’s Statement on the Sewol Ferry Incident

Position of Civil Society on President Park’s Statement on the Sewol Ferry Incident
(19 May 2014, Seoul) President Park Geun-hye released a statement to the nation this morning, the 34th day of the Sewol Ferry Tragedy. The statement came out a month later only with strict control and without rapid rescue was featured by the rapid exit strategy without thorough diagnosis or reflection. The tragedy is still ongoing. There are families in Paengmok Port, Jindo who have been desperately waiting for who have not come back yet. However, no promise for rapid rescue was provided to the families waiting for 18 missing people with impatience. The president showed no willingness to search for the last person by encouraging coast guard.
President Park mentioned “The buck stops here” but nothing in the statement specifically mentioned responsibilities of the president and the Blue House. She pointed out the problems in the Korea Coast Guard, Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries and Ministry of Safety and Public Administration one by one but kept silent on the indifference, irresponsibility and incapability of the president herself and the presidential office. The president mentioned “Something wrong with the control tower”. Still, the president and the office were out of the troubled control tower. The presidential statement held no self-reflection and apology without basic requirement for the statement to the nation.
President Park did neither evaluate nor reflect reckless deregulation policies, another structural cause of this calamity. The core policies of the Park administration like ’3-year plan on the economic innovation’ and ‘Reshuffling public offices’, mentioned with strong implementation in today’s statement, were riddled with various regulations. The former set up the quota system of privatizing the public sector, meaning that an existing regulation should be abolished to put another one. She strongly requested relaxing the regulation for the development in the land and maritime industries in the activity report. The public concern should be raised to cope with risks everywhere in our society. In addition, the rights of workers in every field should be secured to handle risks and keep the safety. To this end, Park should have shown her willingness to curb the expansion of non-regular, part-time labor in the public sector.
The president listed measures like breaking up the coast guard, new establishment of the Ministry of National Safety and rolling back the frontiers of the Ministry of Safety and Public Administration, employment limitation on the retired public officials and beefing up the request prohibition and strengthening liabilities for compensation for pursuing greedy acts putting the public in danger. Some anti-corruption alternatives have been publicly discussed in the society. However, the measures like the dissolution of the coast guard or newly opening the ministry should not be the ones immediately and unilaterally declared by the president. Rather, the direct and structural causes should be honestly reviewed and discussed in the process of the review at the national level. This is against the resolution in the last cabinet meeting declaring no more ‘quick fix’.
President Park Geun-hye said she would accept the special act on compensating for victims, special act on the fact-finding committee and introducing the special prosecutor. It was positive to mention the establishment of the special act on the fact-finding for partly accepting claims from the bereaved families. However, it is doubtful whether recurrence prevention policies just followed what the president tediously discoursed or the policies should be prepared under the presence of the public and the family members through the public fact-finding organization co-existed after the presidential announcement that ‘the captain, some crews and maritime company’ held the direct responsibility for the tragedy. She should have proposed specific plans on how to proceed the fact-finding activities on the public basis instead of lengthy shoddy measures if the president really felt the responsibility and were willing to follow her own declaration on not providing ‘stopgap measures’. The statement itself showed her self-righteousness and insufficient reflection in that the president looked like a judge in discovering the truth and preparing countermeasures.
Even worse, the announcement did not touch upon the press even though doubts spread out that the presidential office intervened the mediamorphosis making the victim families cry after the calamity. Then, she mentioned nothing about that the president herself, government and ruling party officials speaking bluntly and hurting deeply the victims and their left families. Even more, the statement did not cover anything about the behavior of the prosecutor and police who caught 220 people requesting fact-finding missions and punishing person in charge of the Sewol Ferry Tragedy in May 17 and 18 and declared strong law enforcement. This attitude was far away from the responsibility. Rather, it just looked like that the government would keep free public discussions and criticism down through firm stances.
The authorities overloaded to the Park administration caused this calamity. However, there was no one neither the president nor the government to answer for this tragedy. She would like to cover up the faults and exit to the local election on June 4 through this statement but the public is not the pushover. That is because we will take all the agonies from the tragedy together. Here, the roundtable meeting to be held in May 22 collects the opinion from all walks of life and specifically states what and how President Park Geun-hye takes responsibility.
(Translated by Giseok Ahn, Volunteer)

# English

## Wednesday, May 21, 2014

### 세월호 참사 최대 의혹은 국정원 개입 朴,구속시켜야 하는 이유 몇가지, 누가 세월호 참사를 기획했단 말인가…

누가 세월호 참사를 기획했단 말인가…
세월호 참사가 35일째를 넘기고 있을 때까지 긴가민가하는 의혹들이 지속됐다. 사람들의 상상력이 미치는 데까지 부풀려진 의혹들. 참사의 여파로 멘붕을 겪던 사람들이 이성을 회복하기 시작하면서 세월호 참사의 침몰원인은 점점 더 박근혜와 청와대를 옥죄고 있었다. 참사 이후부터 언론 등에 널린 의혹들이 하나 둘씩 사실로 밝혀지기 시작하면서 사람들은 길거리로 나서 촛불을 들었다. 촛불을 든 사람들이 이구동성으로 외치는 목소리는 ‘박근혜 사퇴’였다. 박근혜가 세월호 참사에서 자유롭지 못하다는 게 촛불시민들의 주장이었다.

그런데 적지않은 사람들은 촛불시민들의 주장이 과격하거나 비약된 것이라 말하고 있었는 데 사실을 파악하고 나면 그들의 주장에 공감할 수 밖에 없음을 단박에 알게 된다. 박근혜의 사퇴 주장에 대해 그만한 이유가 있어야 할 것. 따라서 그 이유를 찾아봐야 했다. 좀 더 시간을 두고 보다 많은 자료를 챙겼으면 좋겠지만, 박근혜가 대국민담화 발표를 한 직후 사실상 물타기를 할 개연성이 짙어짐에 따라 그동안 드러난 의혹 몇 개 만으로도 박근혜는 사퇴가 아니라 귀국 즉시 체포해 구속수사를 해야 할 정도였다.<필자주>

1등 항해사 신정훈을 주목하면 박근혜가 보인다

그 시작은 이랬다. 국회 세월호 참사 긴급현안 질문에서 “세월호 참사 당시 세월호 선원이 국가정보원에 직접 전화로 보고를 했다”는 국무총리의 증언이 처음으로 나왔다. 정홍원은 새정치민주연합 김현 의원의 질의에 이 같은 내용의 답변을 한 것이다. 그렇다면 목숨을 다루는 긴박한 상황에서 세월호 선원은 왜 국정원으로 전화(휴대폰) 보고를 했을까. 또 전화를 한 선원은 누구일까… 이런 자료를 구체적으로 정리해 둔 곳은 포털 <다음>의 <아고라방>이었다. 아고리언들이 총출동해 분석해 둔 사고 당시의 자료 속에는 박근혜를 구속 수사해야 할 타당한 사유가 이렇게 적시돼 있었다.

“세월호침몰 하루전 4월15일 입사한 1등항해사 34살 신정훈 이 놈이 맡는 업무은 세월호의 화물 탑재와 운항을 관장하는 보직이였다고 한다. 이상한 것은 입사 하루 밖에 안된 놈이 탈출한 뒤 배의 복원력이 원래 문제 있었다고 진술한다. 입사 하루만에 세월호 선체관련 문제를 한눈에 통찰한 천재이거나 기본 리포트를 읽고 입사한 놈으로 보여진다. 아님 사고 이후 쪽대본을 받았거나… 세월호에서 탈출한 승무원 모두 범죄혐의로 조사해야겠지만 그에 우선하여 신정훈 이 놈 동선에 레이블 붙이고 주목해 본다…”
아고리언 박 모씨가 써 둔 글 속에서 1등항해사 신정훈에 대한 수상한 흔적이 감지된다. 적지않은 분들이 이 내용을 알고 있겠지만 국회 긴급현안 질문에서 드러난 세월호 선원과 국정원의 커넥션(?)을 통해 도드라진 한 사람. 그는 세월호 참사가 일어나기 하루 전에 입사한 1등항해사였다. 그런 그가 언론에 흘린 증언은 충돌음인지 폭발음인지 탑승객은 “쿵” 또는 “쾅” 소릴 들었고 배가 기울면서 침몰했다고 말한 것이다. 천안함 사건을 떠올릴 만한 진술내용이었다. 그러나 이 같은 증언은 혼선을 가중시키기에 충분한 것으로 사전에 (기획)의도된 것일까.

신정훈이 사람들로부터 의혹의 대상이 된 건 신 씨가 소지한 자격증과 무관하지 않다. 7천톤에 가까운 세월호의 1등항해사가 되려면 1.2급 항해사 자격증(대학, 전문대 관련학과) 소지자라야 했다. 그러나 신 씨는 3급 항해사 자격증(고등학교 관련학과)을 소지한 자로 드러났다. 사람들의 의혹을 더욱 증폭시킨 건 사고 이후 검찰의 기소에서 신 씨 혼자만 살인죄 기소에서 빠진 것. 그래서 사람들은 신 씨가 국정원 요원 또는 관계가 있을 것이라 추정을 하는 것이다.

의혹의 주체(몸통)로 떠오른 박근혜
세월호 1등 항해사 신 씨의 이 같은 정황은 보통 사람들이 납득할 수 없는 일로, 세월호 참사에 대통령의 직속 기관인 국정원이 도마에 오르는 건 당연해 보인다. 이 같은 사실 등은 박근혜와 청와대가 잘 알고 있을 것이므로 향후 세월호 참사 사건을 조사할 때 충분한 조사가 이루어져야 하는 것. 주지하다시피 세월호 참사는 국정원의 간첩조작 사건에 대해 국정원장 남재준과 박근혜의 사과가 이루어진 다음 날 일어난 의혹의 사건이다.

또 안산 단원고 학생들은 당초 오하마나호를 타고 제주로 떠날 예정이었지만, 무슨 이유에서 인지 출항 직전에 (무슨 짓을 한 것인지)세월호로 바뀐 것으로 드러난 것이다. 의혹은 더 있다. 세월호는 이후 (항적을 알 수 있는)위성추적장치를 끈 것으로 나타났다. 누군가 일부러 끄지 않으면 절대로 꺼지지 않는 장치가 먹통이 된 것. 더 큰 문제가 다시 도드라지기도 했다.

해수부는 세월호 참사가 일어나기 열흘 전(4월 7일), 박근혜가 주재한 회의에서 선장의 휴식 기간에는 1등 항해사 등이 조종 지휘할 수 있도록 선원법 시행령 개정안을 의결한 사실이 있고, 세월호 참사 하루 전날(15일) 공포한 게 드러나고 있다. 이같은 사실을 종합해 정리해 보면 대략 이러하다.

세월호 참사가 일어나기 하루 전날 안산 단원고 학생들이 타고 갈 여객선은 오하마나호에서 세월호로 바뀌었다. 그날 세월호에는 자격 미달의 한 1등 항해사가 승선한 날이다. 그는 신정환 씨로 소지한 ‘3급 항해사 자격증’은 세월호 1등 항해사 자격에 못 미치는 것. 신 씨는 구조. 수색이 긴박한 골든타임에 (선주와) 국정원과 통화한 사실이 드러나고 있었다. 그는 선장 등 선원들과 함께 배를 버리고 탈출 후 검찰로부터 기소된 후 ‘살인죄’에서 혼자만 빠지게 됐다. 신 씨에게 적용된 솜방망이 기소는 유기치사 혹은 업무상과실치사 혐의. 신정훈은 34살의 나이에 입사 즉시 1등 항해사가 됐다.
상식 밖의 일들이 버젓이 용납되고 있는 세월호 참사에서 박근혜와 국정원 등 관련자들이 자유롭다면 그건 말도 안 되는 일 아닌가. 세월호에는 신정환 씨외 1등 항해사가 한 명 더 있었다. 그는 강원식이다. 강 씨의 행적 또한 석연치 않다. 강 씨는 사고 직후 조타실까지 갔다가 휴대폰을 가지러 자신의 선실까지 다녀오는가 하면, 진도VTS나 제주VTS와 직접 교신한 당사자인 것으로 알려졌다.

내각총사퇴와 박근혜 구속 혹은 격리

아직 이들의 얼굴은 알려지지 않고 있다. 언급한 사실 등을 참조하면 검찰이 신속하게 이들을 격리(구속)시킨 이유를 알 것만 같다. 언론의 접촉으로부터 떼 놓으며 사람들의 시선을 청해진해운(유병언 회장)으로 쏠리게 해 놓는 것. 이 같은 정황을 정리하다 보면 자연스럽게 떠오르는 키워드 하나가 ‘조작질’이다. 마치 누군가 사전 기획을 통해 저지른 천인공노할 ‘살인극’같은 느낌이 강하게 드는 것이다.

따라서 세월호 참사 관련 특별법을 만들거나 국정조사 등을 하게 되면, 맨 먼저 박근혜를 구속 또는 격리해 증거 인멸이나 수사 방해를 하지 않도록 해야 할 것으로 사료되는 것이다. 사정이 대략 이러하므로 국회 긴급현안질문에서 새누리당 의원은 내각총사퇴를 주장하기도 했지만, 그건 어디까지나 이 사건의 몸통을 보호하는 잔꾀에 불과한 것. 내각총사퇴에서 국정원장 남재준과 비서실장 김기춘을 유임시킨다면 그건 또 다른 대국민사기극에 불과한 것. 박근혜와 청와대 혹은 국정원까지 조사대상에 포함되는 건 당연해 보인다.

그럼에도 불구하고 이같은 주장을 통해 박근혜 사퇴를 요구하는 촛불시민 113명을 사법처리<http://media.daum.net/society/affair/newsview?newsid=20140518144010910>하겠다는 건 이치에 맞지않는다. 권력이 댓글로부터 나오는 게 아니라 애시당초 국민들로부터 나오지 않은 게 원죄가 되었다면, 박근혜는 스스로 사퇴하는 게 여러모로 나아보인다. 검찰 또한 위와 같이 일반에 널리 알려진 사실 등에 대해 ‘모르쇠’로 일관하거나 딴청을 피우면 국민적 저항과 퇴출을 자초할 게 아닌가.

오늘(21일) 박근혜가 아랍에미레이트에서 귀국길에 오른다. 불과 이틀 전 발표한 대국민담화문 속에서 세월호 참사 침몰원인은 세월호 선장과 청해진해운이 전부나 다름없었다. 그러나 국정원이 다시금 도마에 오르기 시작하면서 박근혜는 다시 국민 앞에 설 기회(?)를 얻게 됐다. 국정원과 청와대(남재준과 김기춘)가 참사 초기부터 개입한 흔적이 오롯이 남아있는 것. 따라서 박근혜는 국민적 의혹 전부를 밝히고 사퇴하는 것. 그 길만이 나라와 국민 앞에 진심으로 사죄하는 일 아니겠는가.